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Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)

Predictable yearly revenue from subscriptions. Essential SaaS metric for forecasting and planning.

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Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)

What is ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue)?

ARR represents the predictable, annualized revenue from subscription-based contracts.

ARR Formula:
ARR = Total Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) × 12

Example:

  • $100K MRR
  • ARR = $100K × 12 = $1.2M
ARR shows the run-rate revenue assuming no churn or changes—a crucial metric for subscription businesses.


Why ARR Matters

For SaaS Businesses

ARR is the primary valuation and health metric for SaaS companies because:

Predictability:
Subscription revenue recurs predictably (unlike one-time sales).

Valuation:
SaaS companies are valued as multiples of ARR (typically 5-20x depending on growth).

Planning:
ARR enables accurate forecasting and resource planning.

Investor Communication:
ARR growth is the primary story SaaS companies tell investors.

For Sales Teams

Targets:
Sales quotas are often set as "New ARR" targets.

Commissions:
Deals are credited based on ARR contributed.

Forecasting:
Pipeline value is measured in potential ARR.


ARR Components

Total ARR Breakdown

Total ARR = Starting ARR + New Business + Expansion - Churn - Downgrades

ComponentDefinitionImpact
**Starting ARR**Beginning of period ARRBaseline
**New Business ARR**Revenue from new customersGrowth
**Expansion ARR**Upsells and cross-sells to existingGrowth
**Churn ARR**Lost from cancellationsReduction
**Downgrade ARR**Lost from plan reductionsReduction

ARR Benchmarks

Growth Rate Benchmarks

By Company Stage:

StageARR RangeTypical Growth Rate
Seed<$1M100%+
Series A$1M-$5M80-100%
Series B$5M-$20M50-80%
Series C$20M-$50M30-50%
Growth$50M-$100M20-40%
Scale$100M+15-30%

By Funding Type:

TypeMedian ARR GrowthTop Quartile
VC-backed25-30%50%+
Bootstrapped20-23%35-40%

ARR Composition Benchmarks

Healthy Mix:

  • New Business: 70-80% of new ARR
  • Expansion: 20-30% of new ARR
  • Churn: <10% annual churn
  • Net Revenue Retention: 100%+ (growth from existing customers)

Calculating ARR

Basic Calculation

From MRR:
ARR = MRR × 12

From Contracts:
Sum of all annualized contract values

Example:

  • Customer A: $10K/year contract
  • Customer B: $2K/month × 12 = $24K/year
  • Customer C: $500/month × 12 = $6K/year
  • Total ARR = $10K + $24K + $6K = $40K

Net New ARR

Net New ARR = New ARR + Expansion ARR - Churn ARR - Downgrade ARR

Example:

  • Starting ARR: $1M
  • New Business: +$300K
  • Expansion: +$100K
  • Churn: -$50K
  • Downgrades: -$20K
  • Ending ARR: $1.33M
  • Net New ARR: $330K

ARR vs. Other Metrics

ARR vs. Revenue

ARR: Recurring subscription revenue only

Revenue: All revenue (including one-time fees, professional services, hardware)

SaaS companies report both but emphasize ARR for valuation.

ARR vs. MRR

ARR: Annualized view (good for annual planning, valuation)

MRR: Monthly view (good for operational management, short-term forecasting)

Conversion: ARR = MRR × 12; MRR = ARR ÷ 12

ARR vs. ACV

ARR: Total company recurring revenue

ACV: Average value per customer contract

ARR shows the whole picture; ACV shows deal-level metrics.


Using ARR for Planning

Revenue Forecasting

Forward ARR = Current ARR × (1 + Expected Growth Rate)

Example:

  • Current ARR: $5M
  • Expected growth: 50%
  • Forward ARR (12 months): $5M × 1.5 = $7.5M

Hiring Planning

Revenue per Employee:
SaaS benchmark: $150K-$250K ARR per employee

Example:

  • Target ARR: $10M
  • Expected revenue/employee: $200K
  • Team size needed: $10M ÷ $200K = 50 employees

Sales Capacity Planning

Sales Capacity Needed = Target New ARR ÷ Average Rep Productivity

Example:

  • Target new ARR: $2M
  • Average AE productivity: $500K
  • AEs needed: $2M ÷ $500K = 4 AEs

Common ARR Mistakes

Counting One-Time Revenue:
Implementation fees, onboarding, and professional services shouldn't be included in ARR.

Ignoring Churn:
Showing gross ARR growth without acknowledging churn masks true business health.

Inconsistent Calculations:
Changing how ARR is calculated confuses comparisons over time.

Forecasting Optimistically:
Assuming all pipeline will convert inflates ARR projections.

Ignoring Seasonality:
Some quarters naturally stronger; plan accordingly.


ARR in Valuation

SaaS Valuation Multiples

SaaS companies are valued as multiples of ARR.

ARR Multiples by Growth Rate:

ARR GrowthTypical ARR Multiple
<20%5-8x
20-40%8-12x
40-80%12-20x
80%+20-30x+

Example:

  • $10M ARR growing 50%
  • Multiple: ~15x
  • Valuation: ~$150M

Rule of 40

Rule of 40 = Growth Rate + Profit Margin

Companies scoring 40+ on this metric trade at premium multiples.

Example:

  • 30% growth + 20% margin = 50 (excellent)
  • 20% growth + 10% margin = 30 (needs improvement)

Key Takeaways

  • ARR = Annual recurring revenue from subscriptions
  • Formula: MRR × 12
  • Primary SaaS valuation and health metric
  • Components: Starting + New + Expansion - Churn - Downgrades
  • Growth benchmarks: Seed (100%+), Series A (80-100%), Series B (50-80%)
  • SaaS valued at 5-30x ARR depending on growth rate
  • Use for forecasting, hiring, capacity planning
  • Don't include one-time revenue in ARR
  • Rule of 40 = Growth Rate + Profit Margin (aim for 40+)
  • Track Net Revenue Retention alongside ARR
Sources:

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